October 8, 2022: An Amateur Runner's Experience with the Yasso 800 Marathon Prediction Workout

In the past week, I've registered for the Publix Atlanta Marathon on February 26, 2023, and signed up for a 20-week training plan with Coach Carl Leivers. I feel good, having been injury-free for all of 2022, and mentally rejuvenated by just running for fun over the summer. I haven't pursued any big goals, although I've consistently run 3 - 4 times per week, and over the month of September have completed three 10-mile easy runs. I wanted to ensure that I was comfortable in covering the distance for next weekend's PNC Atlanta 10-miler race, plus comfort with a 10-mile base run is the recommended starting point for any marathon training program. 

A few weeks ago, I was listening to a podcast answering listener questions, jointly recorded by Chris McClung of Rogue Running and Angie and Trevor Spencer of the Marathon Training Academy. At 38:30 in the Rogue Running version of the podcast (episode #288), they begin answering a listener's question about the "Yasso 800" workout. While they don't necessarily endorse the workout as a requirement for marathon training or even a valid predictor. Angie Spencer described a workout of 10 800 meter reps at "comfortably hard" effort, separated by 400 meters of easy jogging or even fast walking. A couple of decades ago, Amby Burfoot wrote an article for Runner's World in which he did strongly endorse the workout. On the other hand, Carl Leivers posted a skeptical view in a YouTube video: 

in which he concludes
and he proposes an alternative predictor that he uses. Carl's analysis and his recommendation for a different marathon prediction workout makes perfect sense. How can running 800 meter sprints, on a flat track with plenty of time for recovery, correlate with the endurance required to run 42,195 meters (or 26.2 miles) on the roads in a city with lots of rolling hills? 

Personally I think that the best predictor of future marathon performance is what one has run in the past. So I predict that I will finish the marathon within a range of 4:24:07 to 5:24:56. I'm confident that I will nail that prediction quite precisely, LOL. Having run 8 marathons and completing my last marathon in Chicago 2021 in 5:08:30, I know just how many things can go awry in training and on race day. But with my last "self-structured" workout this morning prior to formally beginning the training plan on Monday, I decided to experiment with a Yasso 800 workout. 

As I wanted to keep my total mileage today well under 10 miles, to be rested for next week's 10-mile race, I kept my warmup to a 400 meter walk around the Tucker Middle School track, in 4:30. Then I started the 800 meter repeats, aiming for 5:00 in the first rep, which I easily managed, in 4:52. I didn't try for "comfortably hard" which probably would have been closer to 4:00, mostly because I wanted to give myself the best chance to complete the 10-rep workout. I generally got faster as I proceeded through the 800 meter reps, although I never really pushed myself. I was running mostly "by feel" and only checked my watch at the 400 meter split and then at the end of the rep. Here is what I accomplished for the ten 800 meter repeats: 

starting temperature, 61 deg F
  1, 4:52
  2, 4:35
  3, 4:34
  4, 4:37
  5, 4:28
  6, 4:33
  7, 4:25
  8, 4:23
  9, 4:28
10, 4:21
finishing temperature, 65 deg F
The fast-walked 400-meter laps ranged from 3:40 - 3:58. My heart rate consistently and quickly dropped during each walk break, so that was a good sign of normal cardiac fitness.
Total mileage after a 400 meter cooldown walk, 7.65 miles in 1:28:01. Mission acccomplished! 

As the workout progressed, I could tell that I was speeding up a bit, once I was thoroughly warmed up. I knew that I would throw out the fastest and the slowest reps. Since I knew that a 4:00 minute "comfortably hard" lap wouldn't count, I just kept the effort consistent from start to finish. By the time I had completed the 8th rep, I had decided that I was going to write a blog post on this workout. The only difficulty was restraining my excitement not to run the last two 800 meter repeats considerably faster! 

Conclusion: After dropping the first (slowest) and tenth (fastest) reps, my average 800 meter rep was 4:30. That's four minutes and 30 seconds, which according to Burfoot and Yasso means that my predicted marathon goal pace is 4:30, or four hours and 30 minutes. Of course I know that I am not at all prepared to cover 26.2 miles at any pace. Perhaps a 2:15 half-marathon prediction is more reasonable, although I haven't run 13.1 miles in a single day since struggling through the Galloway Half in December 2021, so not certain that I could maintain even a 10 minute/mile pace for that long. Nonetheless, it was an enjoyable medium-long run workout, especially since I never exceeded half-marathon pace on the 800 meter repeats. I'm very encouraged that I was consistent and even ran slightly faster as the laps added up, even without really trying to speed up. I'll take that as a prediction that I'm more than ready to begin this marathon training cycle! 




It was nice to spend so much time in Zones 2 and 3. 

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